Abstracts by keywords: SARS-CoV-2
The statements of the thesis paper author group between April 2020 and June 2022 covered three levels: the infection epidemiological situation as a basis, the modern, multimodal prevention concepts as an option for action and the societal level as a context that must be taken into account. Numerous other groups and individuals have set comparable priorities, but overall the reversal of central professional standards in health care with regard to infection management could not be prevented, nor could the use of inadequate prevention concepts and the narrowing of social discourse, the incitement of critical opinions and the revival of “governance” .
05.06.2023
An analysis of the referrals of the Standing Vaccination Commission (STIKO) with indications/vaccines in the period from January 1, 2015 to June 30, 2022 enables a comparison of the average values of referrals by number and intensity between the pre-pandemic years 2015 to 2019 and the pandemic years 2020 and 2021.
04.02.2023
The 7th ad hoc statement from the theses paper author group deals with the topic of the changed STIKO recommendation of May 25th on vaccination in children. Surprisingly, on May 24th, the Standing Vaccination Commission (STIKO) spoke out in favor of the (single) vaccination of healthy children aged 5 to 11 years with an mRNA vaccine, preferably with “Comirnaty”. However, the studies on which the changed recommendation is based only refer to adults; the scientific justification does not provide any evidence for this age group. Consequently, the STIKO also states that the recommendation is being made as a precautionary measure because a renewed increase in SARS-CoV-2 infections is to be expected next autumn. It remains unclear whether a new variant will emerge at all (probable) and whether the vaccine based on the wild type will help against it (questionable). As of: June 23, 2022, 6:00 p.m
22.07.2022
Covid-19: What is the current infectious situation? Like the rest of Europe and the rest of the world, Germany is currently transitioning into the endemic-epidemic phase of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. The currently dominant virus variants (Omicron BA4 and BA5) are characterized by a very high level of contagiousness and, at the same time, a very low disease burden. Even among the very elderly residents of nursing homes, who are considered particularly vulnerable, the severity of the disease and the hospitalization rate decreased significantly under the Omicron variant and after the vaccination campaign; mortality compared to 2020 even increased by more than 90%. The currently dominant variants have led to a significant increase in infections among those vaccinated and those who have recovered, with some clinical signs of a flu-like infection, without this being associated with a noticeable overload on the healthcare system and critical infrastructure. The few cases of overload reported were not a result of increased use of intensive care resources, but rather the consequence of isolation measures for staff that were ordered regardless of any symptoms.
24.06.2022
In the simplest case, so-called SIR models are used for the mathematical modeling of epidemics. The three capital letters describe the states of the individuals or the population that are relevant to the infection process: S means being susceptible to the infection, I means being infected and infectious, and R stands for resistance (immunity). As elsewhere, SIR models are mainly used at the Robert Koch Institute (an der Heiden 2020; Maier 2022). Without further modifications, SIR models are used for modeling infectious diseases that leave lifelong immunity after recovery, as is the case with many “childhood diseases”. But this does not seem to apply to an infection with SARS-CoV-2. There is evidence that both infection with the coronavirus and vaccination against the coronavirus produce only temporary immunity (Baraniuk 2021). In addition, the virus can circumvent an existing immunity with new virus variants (so-called escape variants), against which cross-immunity from previous infections is not available or insufficient (Starr 2021; Weisblum 2020). This article neither describes the incidence of the disease in society nor the burden on the healthcare system. Instead, modeling will be used to examine how various factors could influence the transmission of the infection. In this case, infections must not be equated with diseases that are influenced by many other factors (age, previous illnesses, etc.); infections that occur after previous vaccinations or after previous infections are also associated with a different probability of illness, which is very likely lower. The article presented here focuses on the parameters relevant to infection epidemiology, in particular concerning prevalence and immunity.
23.03.2022
The thesis paper author group presents its 4th ad hoc statement with twelve concrete demands that should be initiated on the new health minister's first working day. The group of authors is speaking out at a time when the new appointment at the top of the Federal Ministry of Health makes a new beginning seem possible. As of November 28, 2021, 6:00 p.m
29.11.2021
Nationally and internationally, mathematical models of the infection process in the corona pandemic have had an enormous political impact. However, the model-heavy nature of the political decision-making processes has also been widely criticized. From both a technical and a sociological perspective, criticism of maneuvers appears to be necessary due to numerous indications. The extent to which the performance of government-related epidemic modeling in particular has met the challenges should be critically questioned and evaluated in wider circles. Model uncertainties and the complexity of the problem of the spread of infectious diseases should be given greater attention. There needs to be a deeper awareness that mathematical models cannot replace practical medical experience and classical concepts for controlling complex systems.
29.11.2021
Bei diesem Text handelt es sich um die Kurzfassung, des Thesenpapiers 8.0, das die Autorengruppe (siehe MVF Online First) erarbeitet hat (Datum 29.8.2021), das zu folgenden Aspekten Stellung nimmt:1. Es wird ein Konzept für das Verständnis der Epidemie entwickelt (Kap. 2 „Pandemie als Komplexes System“), mit dem das schwer zu entschlüsselnde Verhalten der Epidemie zu erklären ist, und das es erlaubt, Empfehlungen für die Steuerung (Messparameter) und die Präventionsstrategie abzuleiten;2. Es wird ein Indikatoren-Set entwickelt (Kap. 3), das die Melderate („Inzidenz“) ablösen kann und über eine erheblich bessere Aussagekraft verfügt;3. Es werden in einem umfangreichen, kritischen Ansatz das Wissen zur SARS-CoV2-Epidemie im Kindes- und Jugendalter dargestellt (Kap. 4) und weitgehende Erleichterungen für diese bisher am stärksten psychosozial belastete Bevölkerungsgruppe gefordert;4. Es wird eine Politische Theorie der Pandemie vorgestellt, die die „Massivreaktion“ der gesellschaftlichen und politischen Ebenen erklärt und für die Diskussion der Handlungsoptionen öffnet.Die Autorengruppe beschäftigt sich seit März 2020 ehrenamtlich mit der Corona-Thematik und greift kontinuierlich mit Thesenpapieren und Ad-hoc-Stellungnahmen in die politische Diskussion ein.
22.09.2021
The corona pandemic poses major challenges for the healthcare system. There was great concern about overload, particularly with regard to intensive care capacities. The discussion about the right prevention, therapy and care concepts remains intense [1]. In addition to symptomatic measures, the treatment concept for Covid-19 includes oxygen administration, non-invasive and invasive ventilation, thromboembolism prophylaxis and the administration of dexamethasone in severe cases [2]. The evaluation of routine data during the course of the pandemic can meaningfully supplement surveillance via legal procedures and the development of registers in a timely manner and without additional collection effort. The Quality Indicators for Church Hospitals Association (QKK e. V.) has therefore quickly added the topic of Covid-19 to its cross-agency quality benchmarking. The Covid-19 module includes 27 key figures in the QKK indicator set for 2021, including intensive care, complications, ventilation and mortality (see https://www.qkk-online.de/). The QKK e. V. can use the routine data from its member institutions to make a comparison between the first and second waves of the corona pandemic in order to support the further development of treatment concepts for patients with Covid-19.
07.08.2021
The group of authors supplements the statements from theses 4 and 6.1 with a third ad hoc statement on intensive care. In correction of the version from May 16, 2021, in Chap. 4 the numbers of patients treated in intensive care are based on the daily value, the hospitalization/intensive care ratio is corrected to the length of stay of 10 days (Table 3) and a footnote (No. 30) is added which deals with the possible explanation for the decrease in the total intensive care bed capacity by outsourcing the pediatric intensive care beds. As of: May 16, 2021, 12:00 p.m., update from May 17, 2021