Too few doctors by 2032? A study on the shortage of skilled workers makes predictions.

11.06.2025 18:16

A few days ago, Klaus Reinhardt, president of the German Medical Association, stated that Germany's healthcare system is heading towards a critical shortage of care. Patients are largely left to their own devices to organize their care. "This development is not only inefficient, it is simply no longer sustainable given staff shortages and limited financial resources," Reinhardt said. [1]

According to a recent study, the healthcare sector is the most affected by a shortage of skilled workers of all industries in Germany. [2] In addition, society is aging – 30% of the German population is 60 years old or older (as of 2023) [3] – and thus the need for medical and nursing staff is also increasing noticeably.

Against this background, the online medical practice ZAVA conducted research to find out which federal states are expected to have the greatest shortage of skilled workers in the healthcare sector by 2032.

Main results

• North Rhine-Westphalia is expected to have the greatest shortage of skilled workers in the healthcare sector by 2032, with an increase in vacancies of 38.77 %.
• According to forecasts, Saxony-Anhalt will have the second highest shortage of skilled workers (38.23 million more positions will be vacant in 2032).
• Baden-Württemberg will have the lowest shortage of vacancies by 2032, with an increase of only 18.27 %.

ZAVA's analysis has revealed that North Rhine-Westphalia is expected to have the highest shortage of skilled workers in the healthcare sector by 2032. The state currently has almost 231,000 vacancies in the healthcare sector, a number projected to rise to over 320,000 by 2032. This represents an increase of 38.77 million euros, higher than in any other German state. This is due to a high average year-on-year increase in vacancies. The forecast predicts that the number of unfilled positions will increase by 5.26 million euros annually, based on strong annual increases in historical job posting data from 2019 to 2024.

Saxony-Anhalt ranks second, where an increase of 38.23 (%) in unfilled healthcare positions is expected by 2032. This results from an average annual increase of 5.39 (%) vacancies – the highest figure nationwide. In 2025, there will be 26,936 vacancies in the healthcare sector, a number projected to rise to 37,234 by 2032.

Rhineland-Palatinate is expected to have the third-highest increase in healthcare vacancies: 34.22%. In this state, the number of unfilled positions is projected to rise from 49,271 to 66,129 by 2032. The average annual increase in vacancies is also high in Rhineland-Palatinate, at 5.26%, the same as in North Rhine-Westphalia.

Positive last place: Baden-Württemberg

The smallest increase in vacant positions is projected for Baden-Württemberg up to 2032. Here, the number of vacant positions in the healthcare sector is expected to rise by 18.27%. While this is the smallest increase nationwide, it still indicates a considerable rise from 124,822 positions in 2025 to 147,623 in 2032, which in absolute terms represents an increase of 22,081 additional vacant positions.

method

1. Experts from the online medical practice ZAVA conducted a study to identify the German states with the greatest shortage of healthcare professionals over the next seven years.
2. For this purpose, historical data on job vacancies in the health, social, teaching and education sectors were used. Jobmonitor.de [4] collected between 2019 and 2024 and forecasted until 2032.
3. To ensure the highest possible accuracy, non-health-related professions were removed from the data.
4. In addition, data on the number of students in the health sector between 2008 and 2023 were collected and also projected to 2032. All data come from the official website of the Federal Statistical Office. [5]
5. The health-related degree programs considered are:

1. 1. Biomedicine
   2. Health technology
   3. Health sciences/management
   4. Medicine (General Medicine)
   5. Medical Informatics
   6. Non-medical healthcare professions/therapies
   7. Nursing science/management
   8. pharmacy
   9. Dentistry

1. The data were forecasted using the forecasting function, which employs the AAA version of the exponential smoothing (ETS) algorithm. This method is well-suited for this task because it is frequently used to analyze time series data and is appropriate for data with consistent trends, seasonality, or random fluctuations.
2. The data were then compared by calculating the proportion of healthcare professionals and health students compared to the population projections in each federal state to determine which federal state has the greatest shortage.
3. In addition, the percentage change from year to year was calculated to see how the data will change over the years.
4. The data was collected on April 20, 2025, and is correct at that time.

Source reference

[1] – ProSieben | President of the German Medical Association: Healthcare system heading towards a state of emergency

[2] – Doctors' Newspaper | Healthcare sector most affected by skills shortage

[3] – Federal Statistical Office | Population by age group (from 2011 onwards)

[4] – Job monitor How in demand is your profession? Find out.

[5] – Federal Statistical Office | GENESIS Online Statistics