Estimator group estimates financial GKV framework conditions for 2020/2021

14.10.2020 17:51

At its meeting on October 13, 2020, the GKV estimation group - consisting of experts from the Federal Ministry of Health, the Federal Office for Social Security and the National Association of Statutory Health Insurance Funds - did not come to an agreed forecast of the amount of statutory health insurance expenditure. The different assessments are explained by a different assessment of expenditure developments in the current and next year. Agreement was reached on the estimate of the income of the health fund and the number of insured persons and members of the statutory health insurance for the years 2020 and 2021.

Estimated result 2020
The health fund's income is estimated at 239.6 billion euros. The regular federal subsidy of 14.5 billion euros, less the share for the agricultural health insurance fund, and the supplementary federal subsidy of 3.5 billion euros were taken into account. In accordance with the legal requirements, the allocations from the health fund remain unchanged at EUR 240.2 billion.
No agreement could be reached regarding the expected expenditure in 2020. The Federal Ministry of Health and the Federal Office for Social Security assume expenditure of 257.8 billion euros. The National Association of Statutory Health Insurance Funds, on the other hand, expects expenditure of 258.6 billion euros.

Estimated result 2021
For 2021, the group of estimators expects income from the health fund of EUR 255.0 billion. These include the regular federal subsidy of 14.5 billion euros as well as a supplementary federal subsidy of 5 billion euros, less the share for the agricultural health insurance fund and an addition from the health insurance companies' financial reserves of 8 billion euros. In addition, when estimating the health fund's income, an addition from the health fund's liquidity reserve of EUR 900 million is taken into account to compensate for the shortfall in income caused by the introduction of a tax exemption on company pension payments.

No agreement could be reached regarding expected expenditure in 2021. According to estimates by the Federal Ministry of Health and the Federal Office for Social Security, the expected expenditure is 274.9 billion euros. The National Association of Statutory Health Insurance Funds expects expenditure of 276.6 billion euros.

Mathematically, the estimated results of the Federal Ministry of Health and the Federal Office of Social Security for 2021 result in an increase in the average additional contribution rate by 0.2 percentage points to 1.3 percent. In contrast, the estimate by the National Association of Statutory Health Insurance Funds results in an increase in the average additional contribution rate by 0.3 percentage points to 1.4 percent.

After evaluating the results of the group of estimators, the Federal Ministry of Health will determine the average additional contribution rate for 2021 and announce it in the Federal Gazette by November 1, 2020