Wasem warns of dramatically increasing health insurance contributions from 1.3 to 2.5%

21.01.2022 12:58

Prof. Dr. Jürgen Wasem, holder of the Alfried Krupp von Bohlen and Halbach Endowed Chair for Medical Management at the University of Duisburg-Essen and one of the most renowned health economists in Germany, is certain: If politicians do not act, health insurance contributions will rise drastically. In the BMC web discussion “Current financial situation of the GKV” on January 19, 2022, he explained what alternatives for political action there were to avoid a doubling of the health insurance contribution rate from 2023: from the current 1.3 to 2.5 percent.

From 2024, the additional contribution would then continue to rise by 0.2 percentage points per year. The reason for this: the primary underfunding (difference between the health fund's contribution income and the health insurance funds' expenditure), which, according to his calculations, will rise from the current 51 billion euros to 75 billion euros by 2027.
According to Wasem, politicians have three alternatives, although they will probably use a mixture of the three instruments if they act.
Alternative 1: Singular increase in the special federal subsidy from currently 24 to 37 billion euros in 2027.
Alternative 2: Singular increase in the contribution rate from the current 1.3 to 2.5% in 2023, after which it will continue to rise by 0.2 percentage points.
Alternative 3: Singular savings of 19 billion euros in 2023, rising to 35 in 2027.

According to Wasem, one thing is clear: “If we don’t regulate anything, the additional contribution will rise to 2.5 percent from 2023 onwards.” The consequence is just as clear that – if there is no explicit legislative action – the special federal subsidy will no longer apply, because so far it has only been has been regulated for 2022. Wasem: “Personally, I think a combination of the three building blocks makes sense.”

You can read a detailed article about Wasem's forecasts in the upcoming issue of "Monitor Healthcare Research"