Medical statistics: When a slight increase leads to a deficiency

09.05.2022 13:14

"Although we are recording a slight increase in the number of doctors, unfortunately this increase is far from sufficient to cover the long-term treatment needs of a society that lives a long life. The federal and state governments can no longer stand idly by and watch this worrying development. What we need now is consistent promotion of young talent and better training conditions in the medical field." This is what Dr. Klaus Reinhardt, President of the German Medical Association (BÄK), the results of the current medical statistics.

As the data shows, a total of 416,120 working doctors were registered with the state medical associations in 2021. As in the previous year, the number increased by 1.7 percent or by around 7,000 people. However, the increase remained below that of 2019 (+2.5 percent).

Despite a slight increase in training place capacity at Germany's medical faculties, it is doubtful whether the German education system produces a sufficient number of doctors so that the medical working time available for care will be sufficient in the future.

The overall societal development towards more part-time work and less overtime is still reflected in the medical profession. This means that more people are needed to fill the vacant positions in medical care and to keep the number of doctor's hours available constant - even as the number of treatments increases. According to the German Hospital Association, the number of treatment cases in hospitals grew from 14.6 to 19.4 million between 1991 and 2019. In addition, according to the National Association of Statutory Health Insurance Physicians, there are around a billion doctor contacts in practices every year. And the need for treatment will continue to increase. The German Diabetes Center predicts an increase of up to 77 percent in diabetes cases alone by 2040.

Society is getting older, and so are doctors. One in five of them is about to retire. Over 13 percent of doctors are in the 60 to 65 year old age group; Another 8.5 percent have already reached the age of 65. This will make the already tense personnel situation in clinics and practices even worse in the coming years. The Federal Association of Pediatricians and Adolescents assumes that around a quarter of pediatricians will retire from professional life between 2020 and 2025.

“The corona pandemic clearly shows how short staffing levels in the healthcare system already are today – in the nursing professions as well as among doctors in practices, hospitals and health authorities,” says BÄK President Reinhardt. The enormous commitment of our colleagues has prevented a collapse in medical care over the past two years. “During the pandemic, it must have become clear to everyone that good staffing in medical care is not a luxury, but can quickly become an existential question,” Reinhardt continued. Politicians must finally draw the conclusions from this and take effective measures to combat the shortage of doctors. “In addition to more study places in human medicine, this also includes attractive professional conditions to keep young doctors in curative medicine,” demands the BÄK President. The shortage of doctors is already a reality, especially in many rural regions.

More doctors work in the ÖGD, but not in all federal states

The Public Health Service (ÖGD) recorded a strong increase in the number of working doctors in the second year of the pandemic. Their number increased by around five percent compared to the previous year, but this development varied greatly depending on the federal state. While some federal states recorded double-digit growth rates (e.g. Hamburg and Hesse), the numbers declined elsewhere (Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, Saarland, Saxony and Thuringia).

Immigration is slowing down significantly

The immigration of foreign doctors – a relief factor for medical care before the pandemic – continued to slow down. In 2021, the number of doctors with foreign citizenship only increased by around 1,100 to around 57,200. This corresponds to an increase of just 1.9 percent - after growth rates of seven to eight percent in previous years. At the same time, the number of doctors migrating abroad rose again after a slump in 2020 and reached the level of previous years with around 1,900 departures.

In addition, significantly more doctors took parental leave (+7.7 percent) compared to previous years. In total, around 132,000 doctors are without medical practice; of which around 93,000 are retired.